Limits to Economic Growth

It is pleasing to see an increasing number of people starting to recognise that what we are seeing with the ‘economic downturn’ are the results of an unsustainable expansionist economic system that only works when it is growing.  Now as limits to growth (resource depletion, climate change, land degradation etc.) are approached we see how the economic system fails in its role unless there is perpetual economic growth.  Whereas people tend to think of growth as an additive function, it is really an exponential function.  For instance 7% growth means doubling approximately every 10 years, rather than a sum growing by the same amount each year; 3.5% growth means doubling every 20 years (divide the percentage growth rate by 70) and so on.  Clearly, although we have become accustomed to GDP growth around say 3.5% as being normal, the size of our economy cannot double every 20 years indefinitely – the resource base isn’t there to support it.

Fueled by cheap energy and resources, the economies of Western countries such as the UK could be considered as being bloated and of an unsustainable  size.  In this case economic degrowth is inevitable and the hope is that we collectively plan for a future of less production and consumption and in which we achieve greater well-being with less.   The alternative would see economic degrowth occur through increasingly severe economic crises following on from the European debt crisis, which has arisen since economic growth can no longer service interest repayments on debt.  The idea of sustainable degrowth to achieve an economy of a sustainable scale has been proposed as a solution to the environmental, social and economic crises and this journal article explores the idea.

Herman Daly points out that economic growth taking place now could be deemed as uneconomic growth, in that as limits to growth are approached further GDP growth can only be achieved by undesirable means such as reducing work safety and environmental regulations, or the depletion of ecosystem services.  It seems imperitive that progress needs to be redefined away from ever-increasing material wealth, towards the things which really matter to peoples’ well-being such as friends, family and community.

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